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Italy Slovakia

Today next World Cup matches: Italy vs. Slovakia and Paraguay vs. New Zealand. What results. What results Italy need  to qualify? What are the chances for New Zealand to qualify? What are the chances for Slovakia or Paraguay? Look at the below image. ( More visual analysis are available here: World Cup Analysis )


Each square on the image represents results of both matches. Colors tell us who will be qualified. As you can see Italy (white and blue) need to win against Slovakia to be sure to be qualified. What about a drawn match Italy vs. Slovakia? If New Zealand win (black squares bottom) Italy are out of the next round (New Zealand and Paraguay qualify). If  Paraguay win, Italy are in (and Paraguay). If Paraguay against New Zealand ends with a draw, there are three possible scenarios. 1) Paraguay (and New Zealand) scores more goals then Italy => Paraguay and New Zealand qualify (black squares in the middle). 2) Italy scores more goals then Paraguay => Italy and Paraguay quallify. (white squares below black diamonds). 3) Italy Slovakia 0:0, 1:1, 2:2, 3:3, …. and Paraguay New Zealand 0:0, 1:1, 2:2, 3:3, … respctively => drawing of lots will be needed because Italy and New Zealand have same number of points and goals for and against and the match Italy against New Zealand is drawn (1:1)

Slovakia need to win against Italy to qualify (red squares) and Paraguay must not lose more then … depends on Italy Slovakia result (gray squares)

Paraguay if they win or draw, they are in round of 16. If they lose, there are some chances to qualify (black squares)

New Zealand if they win, they are in. If they lose they are out. If they draw there are some chances – black squares and diamods in the middle of the image (see Italy’s above)

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